Quick Menu

Upcoming Journals

Asian Research Journal of Arts & Social Sciences

Asian Research Journal of Arts & Social Sciences, 2456-4761,Vol.: 2, Issue.: 1

 

Original Research Article

 

Re-examining the Inflation and Output Relation in Nigeria: A Multivariate Analytical Evaluation, 1960-2014

 

 

I. G. Okafor1, J. U. J. Onwumere2 and Ezeaku Hillary Chijindu1*

1Department of Banking and Finance, Caritas University, Enugu, Nigeria.

2Department of Banking and Finance, University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus, Enugu, Nigeria.

 

Abstracts

 

The link between inflation and total production has been widely reviewed with mixed results and differing opinions. In the case of Nigeria, we have strengthened on the coverage period and the quantitative techniques of analysis in other to overcome some limitations in previous studies. This study therefore re-examined the relationship between inflation and output level in Nigeria using annualized time series from 1960 to 2014. The Autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model was used to estimate the growth regression model while the Bound test was used to test for long-run relationship. Vector Autoregressive causality test was utilized to determine the directional of causality between our series of interest. The findings showed that inflation and official exchange rate have non-significant positive impact on Nigeria’s output level between 1960 and 2014. Real interest rate had significant negative impact on output. The result of the Bound test revealed that there is a long-run relationship between output and inflation. Moreover, the findings further indicated that there is a bi-directional causality running from inflation to output, and from output to inflation. This means that past values of inflation can help to predict output level and vice-versa. We, therefore, concluded that inflation level within a modest threshold has the potential of influencing level of production in the economy. It is noteworthy that past values of output is critical in forecasting inflation. Likewise, for output to be predicted, past values of inflation is vital. Hence, this study has policy implications, and will aid policymakers in establishing effective forecast framework which is necessary for effective maintenance of price stability while ensuring sustained output growth.

 

Keywords :

Output level; inflation; real interest rate; official exchange rate; ARDL; bound test.

 

Full Article - PDF    Page 1-10    Article Metrics

 

DOI : 10.9734/ARJASS/2017/30810

Review History    Comments

Search this site

Advanced Search

Announcement & News

ISI Thomson Reuters selected British Journal of Pharmaceutical Research for Emerging Sources Citation Index

We are delighted to inform that ISI Thomson Reuters selected British Journal of Pharmaceutical Resea...

SCOPUS selected Annual Research & Review in Biology (ARRB)

We are delighted to inform that famous indexing organization SCOPUS (from Elsevier) selected  A...

Index Copernicus Evaluation Result Released

We are delighted to inform that Index Copernicus (a leading indexing organization from Pol...

Journal Repository (JR): Permanent Digital Archiving of SDI journals

SDI is happy to announce that all our journals are now permanently archived in Journal Repository (J...

Index Copernicus Value of British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research

  We are delighted to inform that Index Copernicus (a leading indexing organization ...

SDI journal got 35th ranking in Publons

We are delighted to announce (as of 04/01/2016) that British Journal of Medicine and Medical Re...

Growth of SDI and world publication market

As of 2014, total 25,064 journals are competing in World market of journal publication. In 2011, tot...

Publication and site statistics (up to Sept, 2015)

  Number of submission: 22181 (Total up to Sept, 2015) Number of published paper: 10949&n...

Index Medicus selected 15 SDI journals

We are delighted to inform that Index Medicus (IMSEAR) has selected following 15 SDI journals for in...

SCIENCEDOMAIN international received 5844 submissions in 2013

SCIENCEDOMAIN international is pleased to announce that it has received 5844 submissions in 2013, ac...



SCIENCEDOMAIN Awards

  • No Awards listed.

Browser Compatibility : Mozila firefox, Google Crome and IE 7 & above. Creative Commons License Terms & Condition   |   Privacy Policy   |   Join Us   |   Help   |   Contact Us
© Copyright 2010-2017, SCIENCEDOMAIN international. All rights reserved.