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British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research, ISSN: 2231-0614,Vol.: 18, Issue.: 4


A Simple Method to Forecast Future Bed Requirements: A Pragmatic Alternative to Queuing Theory


Neeraj Beeknoo1* and Rodney P. Jones2

1King’s College University Hospital, London, UK.

2Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting, Worcester, UK.

Article Information
(1) Rui Yu, Environmental Sciences & Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
(1) Kurubaran Ganasegeran, Clinical Research Centre, Seberang Jaya Hospital Penang, Malaysia.
(2) Sanjay Kumar Gupta, Peoples University, Bhopal, India.
Complete Peer review History: http://www.sciencedomain.org/review-history/16580


Aims: To review the current state of hospital bed planning, and to develop a simple tool to estimate short-term future bed requirements using historical bed occupancy data.

Study Design: Analysis of daily bed occupancy between January 2008 and October 2015. Synthesis of trends into a method for forecasting bed numbers for each day of the year.

Place and Duration of Study: Daily occupied bed statistics for King’s College University Hospital, a large London Teaching Hospital having 1,600 beds.

Methodology: An eight-year time-series of daily midnight bed occupancy covering elective, emergency and transfer admissions has been used to estimate the number of beds required to deliver a delay-free hospital.

Results: In this large 1,600 bed hospital it is estimated that 100 extra beds (a 6.3% increase) are required to deliver delay free admissions, i.e. no delays to admission from the emergency department or delays due to cancelled elective operations.

Conclusion: The analysis reveals that far higher flexibility is required in staffing levels than is currently available. Potential strategies are discussed to address this issue.

Keywords :

Hospital bed modelling; optimum occupancy; trend analysis; health policy; queuing theory; delay to admission; staffing.

Full Article - PDF    Page 1-20

DOI : 10.9734/BJMMR/2016/29518

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